$1.6 billion exited Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first 17 days of March, while inflows totaled only $351 million.
-BlackRock IBIT: $552 million outflows
-Fidelity FBTC: $517 million outflows.
-Grayscale GBTC: Over $200 million outflows, with minimal inflows.
-Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF: $55 million net inflows.
Bitcoin remains between $84,000–$85,200, failing to break $85,000 resistance.
99% probability of Fed keeping interest rates at 4.25%–4.50%; QT termination under discussion.
Opinion
The continuous outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs are increasing downward pressure on the market. With Bitcoin failing to surpass the $85,000 resistance, volatility is expanding, and the upcoming FOMC meeting could dictate short-term price movements. In particular, the Fed’s monetary policy stance and potential QT termination will be key factors shaping investor sentiment.
Core Sell Point
The ongoing large-scale outflows from Bitcoin ETFs are likely to tighten market liquidity in the short term and increase price volatility.
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced significant outflows throughout March, intensifying downward pressure on the market. According to Farside Investors, more than $1.6 billion exited Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first 17 days of March, while inflows during the same period totaled only $351 million.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw $552 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) lost $517 million, making them the most impacted funds. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) also recorded over $200 million in outflows, with minimal new inflows. However, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) showed a net inflow of $55 million, marking an exception to the overall trend.
Bitcoin remains unable to break through the $85,000 resistance level, fluctuating between $84,000 and $85,200 amid investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. The market currently estimates a 99% probability that interest rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50%, while discussions on ending quantitative tightening (QT) could play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements.
In a bearish scenario, if Bitcoin falls below $78,000, the likelihood of further declines increases, with $74,000 expected to act as a key support level. In an extreme downturn, prices could drop to the $71,300–$73,800 range, where a potential rebound would determine the market’s next direction. Conversely, in a bullish scenario, breaking above $85,000 could open the door for further gains toward $90,000 and beyond.
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