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"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

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"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

Morgan Stanley, which had maintained a conservative outlook on the semiconductor market, has now raised its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With DRAM and NAND flash prices rebounding and production cuts by major players taking effect, expectations for gradual market recovery are growing.In a report, 'DRAM-Looking beyond the valley' released on March 18, Morgan Stanley increased its target price for Samsung Electronics from 65,000 KRW to 70,000 KRW and for SK Hynix from 150,000 KRW to 230,000 KRW. While Samsung retained its "Overweight" rating, SK Hynix’s rating was upgraded from "Underweight" to "Neutral".The semiconductor market is seeing the full impact of NAND flash production cuts, with prices expected to rise by up to 10% in Q2. Additionally, China’s AI investment and economic stimulus policies are expected to positively impact DRAM supply and demand. However, weak consumer sentiment and intensifying price competition from Chinese semiconductor firms could challenge the sustainability of the current uptrend.Morgan Stanley sees greater upside potential in Samsung Electronics compared to SK Hynix. While HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market growth is already priced in, Samsung is expected to benefit more from NAND production cuts and a slower decline in DRAM prices, leading to a clearer earnings recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung & SK Hynix to Raise NAND Prices in April, Signaling Memory Market Recovery (Mar 17, 2025)

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Samsung Electronics

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Samsung & SK Hynix to Raise NAND Prices in April, Signaling Memory Market Recovery (Mar 17, 2025)

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are set to join other global memory chip manufacturers in raising NAND flash prices next month. As supply cuts take effect and demand gradually recovers, the NAND market, which has been in a prolonged downturn, could see a rebound.According to Taiwan’s DigiTimes, Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase NAND prices by approximately 10% in April, aligning with similar moves by Western Digital’s spinoff, SanDisk. Market insiders suggest that Samsung has already taken steps to prepare for this price hike by significantly reducing its NAND supply. Reports indicate that Samsung’s March NAND shipments amounted to only 20–25% of original orders, with the company citing production constraints—though industry sources believe this is a strategic move to support price increases.The NAND price hikes appear inevitable as several major manufacturers have already announced similar measures. SanDisk previously stated that it would raise prices by over 10% starting April 1 and hinted at further increases in Q2. Following this, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and China’s YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies) also announced upcoming price adjustments.The NAND market’s gradual recovery is being driven by supply cuts from major manufacturers. Since last year, the world’s top five NAND producers—including Samsung and SK Hynix—have actively reduced production. SK Hynix plans to cut Q1 NAND shipments by nearly 20% compared to the previous quarter, while Samsung is expected to reduce supply by about 10%. Micron officially announced a mid-teen percentage reduction in NAND wafer input, while SanDisk, prior to its spin-off from Western Digital, notified customers of a 15% production cut. Japan’s Kioxia has also been curbing production since December.Reflecting these supply adjustments, NAND spot prices are already rebounding. According to DRAMeXchange, the average selling price (ASP) of 128Gb NAND dropped from $4.90 in September to $2.08 in December, marking four consecutive months of decline. However, as of February 24, NAND prices increased 4.57% month-over-month to $2.18. Another market research firm, TrendForce, predicts that while NAND prices may remain weak in the first half of 2025, they will begin a sustained upward trend in the second half of the year.Samsung and SK Hynix currently lead the global NAND market, with 33.9% and 20.5% market shares, respectively, as of Q4 2024. They are followed by Kioxia (16.1%), Micron (13.8%), and SanDisk (11.4%).

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"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

The influence of global investment banks (IBs) on Korean stocks has never been stronger. On September 15, Morgan Stanley slashed SK Hynix's target price from 260,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW, downgrading its rating from "Buy" to "Sell." When trading resumed after the Chuseok holiday on September 19, SK Hynix shares plummeted 6.14%. Similarly, Macquarie recently cut Samsung Electronics' target price from 125,000 KRW to 64,000 KRW, downgrading it from "Buy" to "Neutral." As a result, Samsung’s stock fell below 60,000 KRW, marking a new 52-week low.Why Are Korea’s Leading Stocks Collapsing?There are two key reasons for this:1. Korean Analysts’ Reluctance to Issue ‘Sell’ RatingsDomestic analysts almost never publish ‘Sell’ reports, making foreign IB research seem more credible to investors. With Korean securities firms consistently issuing "Buy" ratings, investors turn to foreign reports for more objective insights—which has triggered massive sell-offs in stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.The issue stems from the conflict of interest between brokerage firms and the companies they cover. Since securities firms earn fees from these companies, issuing negative reports risks upsetting corporate clients. As a result, even when companies underperform, analysts continue to recommend buying.One notable example occurred in April 2023, when an analyst issued the first "Sell" rating on EcoPro. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) launched an investigation, suspecting collusion with short-sellers. While the FSS later justified its actions as a response to investor complaints, the incident demonstrated the risks analysts face when issuing negative ratings.2. Weak Market Structure & Investor SentimentThe second issue is the fragility of the Korean stock market itself. The impact of foreign reports is so severe because domestic investors lack the buying power to counteract foreign sell-offs.Even when global semiconductor companies received similar downgrades, Korean firms suffered disproportionately larger stock declines, exposing the weakness of Korea’s capital markets. This issue is further compounded by:Heavy reliance on foreign investment, making local stocks vulnerable to external shocks.Lack of domestic institutional support, meaning retail investors often bear the brunt of market volatility.Conspiracy Theories & Market Manipulation ConcernsWhenever major stocks collapse, conspiracy theories about market manipulation arise. Some suspect coordination between short-sellers and foreign IBs, particularly after Morgan Stanley’s Seoul branch sold 1.01 million SK Hynix shares just before issuing its bearish report on October 13.However, there’s no clear evidence of illegal activity. Foreign ownership of SK Hynix still remains at 54%, and accusations of front-running would require proof that these banks intentionally manipulated the market—an unlikely scenario given the regulatory risks.The Need for Reform: Strengthening Korea’s Capital MarketsInstead of chasing conspiracy theories, Korea must address the root causes of the problem:Enhancing Analyst Independence: Analysts must be able to issue objective research without corporate or regulatory pressure.Strengthening Domestic Institutional Support: Korea must build a more resilient market structure to absorb external shocks.Ending ‘Buy-Only’ Research Culture: Securities firms must prioritize credibility over client relationships to rebuild investor trust.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

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Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

Shares of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged in early trading on September 19, following a sharp target price cut by Morgan Stanley. The report, released during the Korean Chuseok holiday, significantly lowered its valuation for both chipmakers, triggering investor concerns.Market ReactionAs of 9:25 AM KST:SK Hynix fell 7.00% (-₩11,400) to ₩151,400.Samsung Electronics dropped 1.71% (-₩1,100) to ₩63,300, hitting an intraday low of ₩62,700—its lowest in a year.Morgan Stanley's Downgrade: "Winter Looms"New Target Prices:SK Hynix: ₩260,000 → ₩120,000 (-54%)Samsung Electronics: ₩105,000 → ₩76,000 (-27%)Key Reasons for Downgrade:DRAM Cycle Peaking in Q4 → Downturn expected through 2026.HBM Oversupply Risk → Rising production may push prices down.Chinese Chipmakers Expanding Aggressively → Increased competition may erode Korean firms’ dominance.Morgan Stanley's pessimistic outlook follows its August warning—"Prepare for the semiconductor cycle peak"—which questioned whether the industry could sustain its 2025 growth expectations.The "Winter Looms" title echoes its 2021 report, "Memory Winter is Coming," which accurately predicted the last downturn. This historical accuracy may explain the market's strong reaction.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

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Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor (DS) division may report lower Q3 earnings than SK Hynix, as the latter continues to dominate the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.Concerns over a prolonged semiconductor downturn are now compounded by fears that Samsung could lose its position as the world’s top DRAM supplier. Reflecting this uncertainty, Samsung’s market cap share on the KOSPI has dropped to a two-year low.Q3 Earnings Forecast: Samsung vs. SK HynixSamsung Electronics is set to release its Q3 preliminary results on October 8. While detailed segment earnings will not be disclosed, the DS division is expected to contribute over 50% of total operating profit.According to FnGuide, Samsung’s Q3 projections are:Revenue: ₩80.9 trillionOperating profit: ₩10.77 trillionDS division operating profit: ₩5 trillion rangeMemory business profit estimate: ₩5.2 trillion – ₩6.3 trillionSince Samsung’s foundry and system LSI segments remain weak, most of the DS division’s earnings will come from memory chips.In contrast, SK Hynix is expected to report:Revenue: ₩18.1 trillionOperating profit: ₩6.77 trillionIf these forecasts hold, SK Hynix’s memory business could surpass Samsung’s DS division by ₩400 billion to ₩1.5 trillion.This would mark another quarter where SK Hynix outperforms Samsung’s semiconductor division, after having done so for five consecutive quarters from Q1 2022 to Q1 2024. Samsung briefly regained its lead in Q2 2024, but its position is once again at risk.Analysts now speculate that SK Hynix could overtake Samsung in full-year semiconductor operating profit, something previously unimaginable.HBM: The Market Shift Driving SK Hynix’s EdgeThe HBM segment is a key driver of this shift. HBM chips are 3 to 5 times more expensive than standard DRAM, and SK Hynix currently leads this market, securing lucrative contracts with major AI players like NVIDIA.Reflecting these concerns, Macquarie recently downgraded Samsung’s investment rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and slashed its target price by 50%, from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000.Following Macquarie’s report, domestic securities firms also lowered their price targets, further pressuring Samsung’s stock.On October 2, Samsung hit a 52-week low of ₩59,900 intraday. As of last month, Samsung’s common stock market cap share on the KOSPI fell to 18.61%, its lowest level since October 2022 (18.05%).Samsung’s Response: AI Vision Amid Competitive ChallengesOn October 4, Samsung hosted its 2024 Tech Forum in Silicon Valley, gathering global industry leaders to discuss AI and future business strategies.At the event, Han Jong-hee, CEO of Samsung DX (Device eXperience) division, emphasized:“Samsung is committed to developing AI that enhances daily life.”“Through 'AI for All,' we envision another technological transformation for the future.”However, Samsung’s AI ambitions contrast sharply with its current market challenges. The company’s lagging position in the HBM market suggests that it is struggling to translate its AI vision into real technological leadership.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

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Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

Concerns over a deteriorating semiconductor outlook continue to grow, weighing heavily on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Once flooded with bullish forecasts, securities firms are now rapidly slashing their price targets.On September 19, Samsung Electronics hit a new 52-week low of ₩62,200, while SK Hynix briefly fell to the ₩150,000 range, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year.According to FnGuide on September 23, the average price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as of September 22, stood at:Samsung Electronics: ₩101,958SK Hynix: ₩262,280This represents a 7.97% drop for Samsung Electronics from ₩110,783 on August 22, and a 4.51% decline for SK Hynix from ₩274,667 over the past month.Ironically, securities firms were raising price targets for both companies as recently as July and August, even as AI investment concerns started to weigh on semiconductor stocks. Now, they have reversed their forecasts.Securities Firms’ Shifting Price TargetsAn analysis of this year’s price target trends shows that July and August saw the highest projections, only for them to be cut sharply in September:Samsung Electronics’ average price target (by month):January: ₩94,621April: ₩104,647June: ₩109,071July: ₩110,692August: ₩113,462 → 80% above the current price (₩62,600)September: ₩97,750 (14% decline from August)Some firms have lowered targets below their January estimates:BNK Securities: ₩86,000 → ₩81,000NH Investment & Securities: ₩95,000 → ₩92,000Korea Investment & Securities: ₩99,000 → ₩96,000SK Hynix’s price target trend:January: ₩169,000July: ₩277,655 (+64% from January)September: ₩253,750 (-8% from July)Global Analysts Turn Bearish on SemiconductorsThe bearish sentiment isn’t limited to South Korea. Morgan Stanley, which recently slashed its price targets for Samsung and SK Hynix, also downgraded ASML, a key semiconductor equipment supplier, from "Overweight" to "Neutral".According to FnGuide, analysts from at least three institutions have cut their estimates for Samsung Electronics' Q3 earnings:Operating profit estimate: ₩11.70 trillion (14.3% lower than a month ago)Revenue estimate: ₩81.89 trillion (down 2.6%)SK Hynix’s Q3 forecasts have also been trimmed:Revenue: ₩18.20 trillion (-0.9%)Operating profit: ₩6.94 trillion (-2.0%)Contradictions in Securities Firms’ RatingsDespite the sharp price target cuts, no securities firm has downgraded its investment rating on either Samsung or SK Hynix. In fact, some analysts have even raised their ratings:Kiwoom Securities upgraded SK Hynix from "Market Perform" to "Buy" in August.Yuanta Securities’ Baek Gil-hyun, who cut his Samsung Electronics price target from ₩110,000 to ₩90,000 and SK Hynix from ₩270,000 to ₩220,000, still maintains a "Buy" recommendation.He argues that the semiconductor industry remains a "sector to overweight," predicting a rebound in 2025 as inventory adjustments end and AI-driven IT demand returns.However, most analysts agree that semiconductor stocks will remain volatile in the near term.Q4 Guidance Will Be a Key Market CatalystKB Securities’ Lee Eun-taek emphasized that upcoming earnings releases from Micron and Samsung Electronics will be crucial.“Unless we see a major upside surprise, volatility will persist.”“The most important factor will be guidance for mid-Q4.Depending on the outlook, the market may either fully price in negative factors or immediately rebound.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially ended its four-and-a-half-year tightening cycle by cutting interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The 50 basis point (bp) cut ("big cut") has sparked uncertainty in global markets, with increased volatility expected in the near term.As concerns about an economic slowdown persist, investors are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until key economic indicators are released at the end of the month.According to the Korea Exchange on September 19, the KOSPI closed at 2,580.80, up 5.39 points (0.21%) from the previous session.Although the Fed’s rate cut met market expectations, foreign investors were net sellers, dragging down the KOSPI. Foreign investors offloaded ₩1.1765 trillion worth of shares, marking the largest sell-off since "Black Monday" on August 5.Semiconductor Stocks Drag Down the MarketSemiconductor stocks, which dominate the Korean stock market, failed to rally. Morgan Stanley sharply cut its price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix during the Chuseok holiday, further weakening investor sentiment.SK Hynix’s price target: Slashed from ₩260,000 to ₩120,000 → Stock plunged 6.14%.Samsung Electronics’ price target: Cut from ₩105,000 to ₩76,000 → Stock fell over 2%.The KOSDAQ index also saw a rollercoaster session, opening higher, dropping 0.45% intraday, before rebounding 0.86% to close at 739.51.U.S. Markets React Volatilely to Rate CutOn September 18 (U.S. time), Wall Street experienced significant swings following the Fed’s rate cut.Dow Jones: +375.79 points intraday → Closed -103 points (-0.25%) at 41,503.10.S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Hit new all-time highs intraday → Closed lower.Investors initially cheered the large rate cut, but sentiment deteriorated on concerns that the Fed was preemptively responding to a potential economic downturn.Fed Chair Jerome Powell attempted to downplay recession fears, stating that there was no clear evidence of a heightened risk of recession. However, his remarks failed to ease market concerns.Key Economic Data to WatchMarket participants await key U.S. economic indicators at the end of September, which could determine the market's next direction. If economic slowdown fears resurface, a deeper market decline is possible.September 23: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMIAugust PMI: 47.2 (up from 46.8 in July but still below the expansion threshold of 50).September 26: U.S. Q2 GDPFed revised 2024 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% → 2.0%.September 27: U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure).Diverging Views: Caution vs. Rebound PotentialChoi Sung-rak, Head of Stock Analysis at the International Finance Center, highlighted recession risks:"The biggest risk for equity markets is economic slowdown.""This year’s stock market rally was driven by corporate earnings, making markets more sensitive to recession fears.""AI and semiconductor stocks have already corrected about 15% from their July highs. If there is no sector rotation into other industries, the broader market could see an extended correction."Some analysts argue that foreign capital inflows could trigger a sharp rebound.Cho Joon-ki, SK Securities:"If the right reversal trigger emerges, the market could bounce back strongly.""This rate cut cycle is likely to be a soft landing rather than a response to a recession.""If risk appetite returns, a massive foreign capital inflow could fuel an explosive rally."Bank of America Global Research expects further aggressive rate cuts:Q4 2024: 75 bp cuts.2025: 125 bp additional cuts.The Fed has two more FOMC meetings scheduled for November and December.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

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