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박재훈투영인 프로필 사진박재훈투영인
ChatGPT, Twitter Sentiment, and Bitcoin Return (Nov 9, 2023)
created At: 3/18/2025
Neutral
Neutral
This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.
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Fact
ChatGPT-3.5 analyzed Twitter sentiment from 2021–2022 to predict Bitcoin returns. Developed sentiment indicators: Bullishness Index (BI), Variation (VA), and Agreement (AG). Higher BI and VA positively correlate with Bitcoin price increases. Outperformed traditional sentiment metrics like Google search volume and Fear & Greed Index. BERT and VADER performed worse, highlighting ChatGPT’s superior natural language understanding. Findings remained significant even after controlling for VIX, trading volume, and news trends.
Opinion
The study underscores ChatGPT’s potential as a financial market analysis tool. By extracting more nuanced investor sentiment, it outperforms traditional sentiment indicators and provides a clearer signal for Bitcoin traders. Bullish sentiment drives buying pressure, while high sentiment fluctuations indicate increased trading opportunities. ChatGPT’s edge over BERT and VADER highlights the advantage of large-scale AI models in financial applications.
Core Sell Point
ChatGPT-based sentiment analysis outperforms traditional metrics, providing a more accurate and real-time reflection of investor sentiment, making it a valuable tool for Bitcoin trading strategies.

A recent study, ChatGPT, Twitter Sentiment, and Bitcoin Return, explores how ChatGPT-generated sentiment indicators from Twitter influence Bitcoin returns. The findings reveal that even after controlling for existing sentiment metrics, ChatGPT 3.5’s sentiment index significantly impacts Bitcoin price movements, suggesting that it captures unique emotional signals missed by traditional indicators.

Methodology

Data Collection:

  • Extracted tweets (2021–2022) from key opinion leaders (KOLs) in cryptocurrency, as selected by Coindesk.

Sentiment Analysis Models:

  • Used ChatGPT-3.5, BERT, and VADER to classify tweets as bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Sentiment Index Construction:

  • Developed sentiment-based metrics, including:

    • Bullishness Index (BI): Proportion of positive sentiment tweets.

    • Variation (VA): Daily sentiment fluctuation.

    • Agreement (AG): Degree of consensus in sentiment.

Regression Analysis:

  • Modeled Bitcoin returns as a function of ChatGPT-based sentiment indicators while controlling for:

    • Market volatility (VIX), trading volume, and crypto-related news trends.

Key Findings

1. ChatGPT-Generated Sentiment Indicators Predict Bitcoin Returns

Bullishness Index (BI):

  • Higher BI correlates with increased Bitcoin returns.

  • Suggests that when investors are more optimistic, buying pressure increases, driving prices higher.

Variation (VA):

  • Greater sentiment fluctuations predict higher returns.

  • Indicates that market volatility creates trading opportunities for investors.

Agreement (AG):

  • Higher sentiment consensus correlates with positive Bitcoin returns, though its impact is weaker than BI and VA.

2. Robustness Against Control Variables

  • Even after accounting for VIX, trading volume, and news coverage, ChatGPT’s sentiment indicators remain statistically significant, reinforcing their unique predictive value.

  • This suggests ChatGPT extracts meaningful emotional cues from Twitter beyond what existing models detect.

3. Comparison with Traditional Sentiment Indicators

  • ChatGPT-generated indices outperform Google search volume and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index in explaining Bitcoin price movements.

  • Confirms that ChatGPT captures market sentiment more effectively than conventional measures.

4. Superiority Over Other AI Sentiment Models

  • BERT and VADER struggle to match ChatGPT’s accuracy.

  • ChatGPT’s advanced language processing allows for deeper sentiment extraction, making it more effective in financial contexts.

This study demonstrates that ChatGPT’s sentiment analysis of Twitter can serve as a powerful tool for Bitcoin return prediction. By capturing real-time shifts in investor sentiment, ChatGPT-based indicators offer an edge over traditional market sentiment measures.

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