March historical performance:
Overall success rate: >64% across major indices
Average gains: 0.7% (Russell 2000) to 1.1% (S&P 500)
Post-election year performance is weaker
Post-election rankings: #7 for DJIA/S&P 500, #8 for Russell indices, #9 for NASDAQ
NASDAQ performance drops from +0.8% overall to -0.1% in post-election years
Extreme NASDAQ variations: -14.5% (2001) vs +10.9% (2009)
Opinion
The data reveals a concerning pattern of post-election March underperformance that investors should approach with caution. The significant deterioration in NASDAQ's performance is particularly troubling, suggesting technology stocks face heightened vulnerability. The wide performance spread between 2001's collapse and 2009's rally indicates extreme volatility rather than predictable outcomes during these periods. Such historical patterns challenge the conventional wisdom about March's reliability within the "Best Six/Eight Months" strategy.
Core Sell Point
March's typical reliability deteriorates significantly in post-election years across all major indices, with NASDAQ experiencing the most dramatic performance decline, indicating investors should recalibrate expectations downward for this typically favorable month.
As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a respectable performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000, advancing more than 64% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.7% by Russell 2000 to 1.1% by S&P 500.
Post-election year payments to the Piper have exacted a toll on March as average gains are trimmed. (see Vital Statistics table below). In post-election years March ranks: #7 for DJIA and S&P 500; # 8 for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000; and #9 for NASDAQ. NASDAQ also has the largest change in its average performance, dropping from +0.8% in all Marchs since 1971 to a loss of 0.1% in 13 post-elections years. NASDAQ’s massive 14.5% drop in 2001 is only partially offset by its impressive 10.9% advance in 2009.
