S&P 500 having worst start since March 2020
Index still up 90% from March 2020 bottom
In previous 8 Fed hiking cycles, S&P 500 was higher one year later
Tech sector averaged 21% gains during past rate hike cycles
No sector has outperformed in all four recent hiking cycles
Market has weathered pandemic, election turmoil, and war
Historical oil shocks preceded several economic downturns
Opinion
The current market environment presents uniquely challenging conditions. While historical data suggests markets can weather rate hikes, the combination of multiple risk factors is concerning. The confluence of elevated inflation, geopolitical tension, and oil price shocks creates a more complex challenge than previous hiking cycles. Most troubling is how the Fed must balance inflation fighting against potential oil shock effects, a dilemma that could lead to policy mistakes.
Core Sell Point
Despite historically resilient market performance during rate hike cycles, the unprecedented combination of inflation, geopolitical risks, and oil price shocks creates a significantly more dangerous environment that could break historical patterns and lead to sustained market weakness.
The S&P 500 Index is off to its worst start to a year since the Covid-fueled selloff in March 2020, and now investors have to contend with rising interest rates possibly starting at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Over the past two years the stock market has managed to rise in the face of the worst global pandemic in a century, one of the most divisive presidential election in U.S. history and the Capitol being attacked by Americans upset over the results of that election. Now it’s facing the largest ground war in Europe since World War II, and the fastest inflation since the 1980s.
So with the Fed preparing to hike rates, it’s worth wondering if the S&P 500, which is still up almost 90% since bottoming on March 23, 2020, is running out of steam.
Here’s a look at what history says about the U.S. stock market when the Fed starts raising rates:
History of Rate Hikes
History suggests U.S. stocks are poised to experience more volatility following the rise in rates. But that doesn’t mean the bull run is over. In fact, in the previous eight hiking cycles the S&P 500 was higher a year after the first increase every single time, according to LPL Financial.
Sector Performance
In the past three decades, the Fed has taken on four distinct rate hike cycles. None have been detrimental equity markets. And technology, which has seen wild swings this year on the prospect of faster rate increases, is typically among the best performing S&P 500 sectors during those cycles, with a gain of nearly 21%, according to Strategas Securities. But overall, leadership varies with no sector outperforming in all four instances, the data show. Oil Shock Dilemma
So what could be a tripwire for this bull run? Rising oil prices coupled with rate hikes. The Fed faces a tricky dilemma with crude surging and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatening to make it even more expensive. Oil shocks have preceded economic downturns in the mid-1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. But other recessions, like after 9/11 in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008, weren’t directly caused by a sharp rise in crude prices.
