올해 S&P 500은 약 20% 상승했지만, 기업 실적은 연 1% 수준의 증가에 그칠 것으로 예상됨.
일부 전문가는 20년 만에 가장 큰 실적-주가 괴리(divergence)라고 지적함.
1990년대 후반 닷컴 버블 시기와 비교하며, 추가 상승을 위해서는 또 다른 버블이 필요하다는 견해가 있음.
반면, 완화적 통화정책과 미·중 무역협상 완화가 시장을 지지할 것이라는 분석도 제시됨.
Opinion
주가가 크게 올랐는데도 기업 실적이 부진해, 시장과 실적 간의 괴리가 커 보입니다. 과거 닷컴 버블 당시에도 비슷한 상황이 있었지만, 그땐 극단적 버블이 형성된 끝에 거품이 꺼졌습니다. 이와 달리, 현재 일부 전문가들은 연준의 완화적인 통화정책이나 미·중 협상 진전을 근거로 시장이 당분간 버티거나 더 오를 수 있다고 전망합니다. 결국, 버블 가능성을 우려하는 시각과 완화 정책을 지지하는 시각이 공존하므로, 투자자는 업종·종목별 선별적 접근에 주목해야 합니다.
Core Sell Point
주가 상승과 부진한 실적 간의 큰 괴리가 이어지는 가운데, 완화적 통화정책과 무역협상 이슈가 시장을 지탱할지, 아니면 닷컴 버블처럼 거품이 터질 위험이 있는지 신중히 지켜봐야 할 시점입니다.
JPMorgan , Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth unofficially kicked off the reporting period this week, sending broad markets within reach of all-time highs. But the positive earnings results belie a major divergence occurring in the market. While the S&P 500 has risen 20% this year, earnings growth is expected to climb by just 1% in 2019. “We can have these divergences take place but usually not to this degree,” Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “We saw it in 2015 where we had an earnings recession — earnings went down and the stock market was flat. Well, this year we have earnings that are flat and may end up being down. … That’s quite a divergence.” Maley says he has not seen a mismatch between the stock market’s performance and corporate earnings as large as this in more than two decades. “You very rarely get that kind of divergence that lasts very long. We had it to a smaller degree in 2012, and we definitely had it back in 1997, and the market continued to move higher but that of course was in the middle of a bubble,” he said. During the dot-com bubble of the ’90s, valuations were driven sky-high by investors eager to buy into internet and high-growth companies. From a low in October 1998 to a peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite rocketed nearly 280%. However, once that bubble burst in 2000, the index fell 79% in 18 months. “Unless you’re really looking for a big bubble here going forward, it’s kind of hard to be bullish on the broad S&P. That doesn’t mean that we have to have a correction or a recession or anything like that, but I do think it’s means that between now and at least the election next year, stock picking and group picking is going to be the main priority,” said Maley. While earnings growth might not be anemic to nonexistent, Joule Financial President Quint Tatro says monetary policy could be enough to support a path to stock market gains. “It’s all about the ‘non-QE that’s really QE’ that we’re getting here from the Fed and you can’t fight the Fed,” Tatro said during the same segment. Tatro adds that with the U.S. saying it has made progress with China on trade talks, this environment is looking especially attractive for investors. “With what looks like China trade at least not a daily headline for the time being, that’s allowing the market to breathe a sigh of relief as we’ve been seeing,” he said. “We think that this is going to last a good while as long as we continue to see this sort of truce playing out with China. Now those headlines come back in, valuations and earnings are going to matter again very quickly and investors should be aware of that.”
